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Market specialists have shown deep doubt regarding bullish predictions that US energy majors will swiftly invest tens of billions of dollars to fix the country's dilapidated energy sector.

Requirement of Solid Guarantees

Without an “iron-clad guarantee” of complete repayment from the American government, experts believe global energy giants to act with extreme caution.

“It seems premature to comment on any future business activities,” a representative said in response.

The aggressive schedule of less than a year and a half was boldly outlined. However, realistic assessments suggest a longer timeline.

A Likely Schedule

“It is likely going to take multiple years for any significant output increase,” commented an energy analyst.

Experts believe operators would likely spend:

• The first year: Securing new government and security contracts.
• The second year: Beginning reconstruction of equipment.
• The third year: Being able to boost yield.

This suggests an increase of around 500,000 bpd maybe by late 2028.

Desire Versus Willingness for Spending

There is a key distinction between multinationals’ interest and their appetite to invest substantially.

“I believe their curiosity is an eight, on a range of ten. I think their willingness is a four or five, because there is a lack of certainty yet.”

Seasoned diplomats in the country share this sentiment. The thinking is that firms will publicly talk up the opportunity while privately acting with great care.

The Colossal Investment Required

The monetary investment would be vast. University projections suggest that adding between half a million and a million barrels per day would require more than $10 billion in funding over two to three years.

However, returning output to peak levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Pending Issue of Taxpayer Funding

The suggestion of oil giants being paid back by the US taxpayer has been often raised. But, specific plans on any guarantee have so far not been announced.

Without clarity is the main reason for the industry's hesitation. Companies seek safeguards against nationalization and the possibility that a future government could renege on any deal.

“They must be insured against nationalization, that we’ve experienced in Venezuela before.”

Therefore, while political optimism runs strong, the financial risks suggest a road of extreme caution for any large-scale venture in the country's energy industry.